UNITED STATES ECONOMIC FORECAST
By: Jeffrey Matthews
The U.S. economic slowdown in the late 1980's was enlarged due to
the global economic slowdown. President George Bush tried to get americans
to accept patience, as growth was nearby. He pushed for global economic
improvement and more exports by the U.S. as it was competitive in
other markets. The dollar was getting weaker as the U.S. started to
export more and it helped the balance of trade.
However, due the global economic slowdown increasing in other
countries the dollar became stronger. Some countries began to revalue
their currencies. Cuts in spending, buying, building, increased
job layoffs, bank failures, restructuring of major corporations
became overwhelming. This has caused the economy to slowdown longer
than anticipated.
The federal government tried to curtail this slowdown by reducing
the finance rates to an all time low to spur spending. However,
the bank failures could not support this effort. Unemployment is
rising thus costs associated with this will increase causing further
problems. The prime bank lending rate in the U.S. is presently about
6%; while 25 year home mortgage rates are averaging about 7%; and
Commercial Deposit accounts are only paying about 3.5% Even with
this low percentage the economic recovery is slow.
The issues at hand are:
Overspending by the government
Companies to maintain competitiveness locally and abroad
Employment and creation of new jobs
Taxes
Health care
The new administration headed by President Clinton is looking
to spur the economy by change. It is this change concept that put
him into office. However, the 1990's both in the U.S. and globally
are a different economic situation then in past years. The problems
of rich spending by government and the over building by developers
of office buildings are real and present. The change in production
of cars, stereos, televisions, steel industry, clothing, and many
other products has shifted from the U.S. market to more competitive
markets. The idea of an open market with Canada and Mexico is raising
many questions by workers how this will help them in the U.S. Never
before has the U.S. seen banking problems as it has today both in
residential and commercial. Therefore, what change can the Clinton
administration make that will improve quickly this economy?
The global economic market is primarily divided into three areas,
North America, Western Europe, and East Asia (mainly Japan with
Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore supporting it). This represents
about 80% of the world trade. Western Europe as a whole will grow
less than 1.5% in 1993. Even the E.E.C. will not help this market
increase more rapidly. The dollar slowdown in most countries, coupled
with the opening of Eastern Europe, higher interest rates, and now
the German market unification, has put to much pressure on Western
Europe. This will obviously also affect the export market for the
U.S. as Western Europe is a most important trading partner.
North America, Canada and Mexico represent the largest percentage
of exports for the U.S. However, Canada is forecasted to grow only
2.7% and Mexico 4%. The NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement,
should especially help Mexico increase further if passed this year
by all three countries.
East Asia will be fueled by Japan as usual. It is anticipated
they will recover more quickly this year than other nations. However
the lack of credit the banks are offering business will slow down
this recovery as money is not made available. Japan should increase
this year 2.4% This is not great but is realistic. The main reason
is the $86 billion dollar fiscal spending announced in August 1992.
The other countries in East Asia should grow at 6%. This will hopefully
offer the U.S. market and expanding export market.
The U.S. is forecasted to grow only by 2.5% - 2.8%. As Clinton
takes control and the democratic political party get into the swing
of things government spending should increase. It may mean that
the american workers will have to pay with higher taxes and other
hidden taxes. It is also suggested to raise duties on imports as
Japan and others are attacked for dumping in the U.S. market. Many
things will happen this year in the U.S. market and everyone is
just waiting to see what action this new political leadership will
avail. The present unemployment is about 6% and may go higher before
year end.
The mentality of workers and business owners is cautious and open
minded. However, this conservative attitude will not excite the
economic growth the U.S. needs. Even with growth that is forecasted,
employment is not going to improve quickly. Companies are not rehiring.
The U.S. will need to look into other export markets such as South
America. This potential market can be the long term future of the
U.S. economic growth. It will and is looking into the old Soviet
Union to assist in their development as well as Eastern Europe.
There is much opportunity for growth worldwide as the underdeveloped
countries are expanded and assisted to grow. Look at Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia; or at Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. These
are vast markets with large and growing populations. China is also
improving its economy. The large population of China offers a large
potential to exporting countries. The economy in China should improve
at rates above 12% per year. India also has one of the largest growing
populations that may over the next decade or two offer many countries
export opportunities.
Building and construction in the U.S. are down and will remain
so. The major areas of potential are restoration, renovation, and
remodeling in both small commercial projects and residential projects.
The slow increase in residential housing will not maintain the present
market suppliers of construction products. It is predicted that
in 1993 the construction activity will grow by 8 percent with homebuilding
again leading the industry growth. Per F. W. Dodge, a division of
McGraw-Hill's Construction Information Group, total contracting
for new construction is expected to grow to a high of $267 billion.
Therefore, many small companies and some large will go out of business
or drastically reduce their power in the market. Restructuring of
companies to survive in these economic times is most important.
Major corporations such as IBM, Coca Cola, General Motors, and others
are going through changes presently.
The change that President Clinton is proposing for the American
market will be slow in coming. Whether he can turn things around
for the American market quick enough to satisfy voters is questionable.
However, the american voters are counting on change and young blood
in the political offices that will look at the needs of the 1990's.
This decade will be one of restructuring and establishing more
sound competitive companies. The stone business is not going to
rebound quickly since it is at the tail end of recovery. We shall
not see the level of stone usage during the rest of this century
that we saw during the 1980's. We will see a gradual growth of stone
but primarily in small renovations, residential, and restorations.
The main interest presently in stone is in low priced products,
as well as limestone and slate.
The areas that have or are in decline for usage of stone the most
in the U.S. are presently the Northeast, southern Florida, and California.
The areas of biggest opportunities are the Southeast, Midwest, and
Texas.
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